Thursday, April 28, 2016

97% Chance Trump Wins Nomination Before Convention, Statisticians Reveal

Trump will likely hit over 1284 delegates even if he loses Indiana

There’s at least a 97% chance Donald Trump secures the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright before the GOP convention, according to the Princeton Election Consortium.
The PEC performed statistical analysis on the current state of the race to determine the importance of the upcoming Indiana primary, and actually found that with his current support, Trump will likely hit over 1284 delegates even if he loses Indiana.



“Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana, however, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more,” PEC’s Sam Wang revealed. “Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates.”
“Also, a moratorium on ‘brokered-convention’ articles?”
The analysis was based on current poll data and Google’s correlate-based estimates for recently unpolled states.“Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation), and the rest are Cruz states,” he continued. “Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count [if Trump wins Indiana] is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339) [and then] the probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%.”That’s going to make it extremely difficult for the GOP establishment to steal the nomination from Trump at the national convention in July, and it explains why many insider are finally warming up to Trump.And when Trump was asked about Ted Cruz picking Carly Fiorina as his vice president choice yesterday, he said Cruz was “wasting his time,” and he definitely had a point.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Reaction: Joe Biggs Talks Trump Foreign Policy

An analysis of Trump's first major policy speech

Joe Biggs analyzes and responds to Donald Trump’s speech on Foreign Policy.



How Trump Could Save Mexico

Mexico benefits from a Trump presidency


Donald Trump has already forced Mexico to clean up its national image, underscoring how the country suffering from NAFTA could actually benefit from a Trump presidency.
Mexico is launching a massive PR campaign to improve perceptions of the country after Trump exposed many of its problems, but this is a good thing: sometimes it takes your worst critic to enforce needed change.
In fact, Trump’s proposed border wall, hatred of the North American Free Trade Agreement and nationalistic views could help America’s southern neighbor.
For one thing, a lot of people don’t realize NAFTA has fueled mass unemployment in Mexico, which has caused thousands of illegal immigrants to flood into the U.S. looking for jobs.
“There are no jobs [in Mexico] and NAFTA forced the price of corn so low that it’s not economically possible to plant a crop anymore,” Rufino Domínguez, the former coordinator of the Binational Front of Indigenous Organizations, revealed. “We come to the U.S. to work because we can’t get a price for our product at home. There’s no alternative.”
Sin maiz, no hay pais: without corn, there is no country, as the Mexican saying goes.
NAFTA disrupted Mexico’s corn production so badly that 75,000 Iowa farmers were able to grow twice as much corn as 3,000,000 Mexican producers – and at half the cost because the U.S. maintained its corn subsidies under NAFTA.
That resulted in the mass migration of Mexican farm workers flowing into America.
“The big wave in illegal immigration from Mexico began in the 1980s, but it picked up strongly after NAFTA – that wasn’t unexpected,” NPR’s Tim Robbins reported.
And which presidential candidate has spoke out against NAFTA and other destructive trade agreements? Donald Trump.
“It’s a disaster,” he said in Sept. “…We will either renegotiate it, or we will break it.”
And if Trump increases border security between the U.S. and Mexico, that would also force Mexico to curtail its own corruption and drug violence instead of exporting its problems to the U.S.
In contrast, President Obama’s current open borders policy encourages not only unsafe migration but also human trafficking in the U.S. – and right now there’s more people enslaved now than at any time in human history.
“Modern slavery globally has become a $150 billion a year business, with an estimated $99 billion generated annually from commercial sexual exploitation and $51 billion from forced economic exploitation,” the Human 2020 project revealed.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

“What Do We Do Now?” – Anti-Trump Alliance Self-Destructs Within Hours

Upon hearing of the deal between Cruz and Kasich, GOP voters and strategists alike were left scratching their heads, wondering how this was all supposed to work.

 
Less than 24 hours after the Cruz/Kasich alliance was announced, it already appears to be on the verge of failure.
Upon hearing of the deal between Cruz and Kasich, GOP voters and strategists alike were left scratching their heads, wondering how this was all supposed to work. To recap, the two men had their campaigns release statements late last night telling voters of a plan they’d put together that would prevent Donald Trump from winning the necessary delegates required to have an outright victory prior to the convention. Cruz was to focus on Indiana, while Kasich was responsible for Oregon and New Mexico.


Immediately GOP strategists were left wondering how this plan was going to sit with voters, dreading that this would be the latest anti-Trump plan to violently backfire. “I think the Kasich people are now left choosing between two people who they see as unappealing. I have talked to a lot of friends today who are stunned and puzzled and kind of adrift‘what do we do now?'” said Mike Murphy, a GOP operative in the state of Indiana.
The Hill also quoted an anonymous Republican Strategist in Indiana who said people were torn between stopping Trump, and asking themselves what has happened to their party that made this circumstance even possible. “I think it’s a bit of an open question as to whether this deal will take. I’ve got people who say, ‘Yes, I will do anything to stop Trump.’ And others who say, ‘What in the world is the party coming to?’ They view Cruz as unsatisfactory as a nominee but Trump as unfathomable.”
And then there was outright frustration at the absurdity of it all. “This election is garbage. I voted early and then they cut a deal a week before election day.” Dave Ober, a Republican state representative in Indiana tweeted.Not only were strategists left dumbfounded, but apparently so was Kasich. Before the ink was even dry, as it were, Kasich suggested during a campaign stop in Philadelphia that his voters should still vote for him in Indiana, which was one of the places the so-called plan was calling for him to fall back on so Cruz had a chance to win. At a campaign stop in Philadelphia, Kasich said “I’ve never told them not to vote for me. They ought to vote for me.” which no matter how one looks at it is thoroughly confusing considering this is precisely what the so-called alliance urged against.Not one to let anything slip by without comment, Trump had this to say about the half thought out and frankly laughable attempt at blocking his nomination:
“So they colluded, and, actually, I was happy because it shows how weak they are; it shows how pathetic they are,” the front-running candidate said at a rally in Rhode Island on Monday.
“If you collude in business, or if you collude in the stock market, they put you in jail. But in politics, because it’s a rigged system, because it’s a corrupt enterprise, in politics you’re allowed to collude,” he added.
As the circus continues into the final states, we’re not sure how everything will ultimately play out. However, we are confident that from now until July, there will be more fodder for Trump to tweet about, and certainly more once unheard of tactics deployed by a desperate GOP establishment which will do anything, even if it results in a smoking crater just hours later, to stop Donald Trump while achieving precisely the opposite of what was intended, and boosting support for Trump to even greater highs.

DONALD TRUMP Still Outperforming Cruz, Sanders and Hillary Clinton! Cruz and Sanders Both Eliminated in 5 Days

Gateway Pundit | Jim Hoft - April 26, 2016
 
Update to post on April 16th –
Donald Trump, after New York, increased his lead against Ted Cruz.  Trump also continues to top Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in the elections to date.
Primary and caucus results to date (as of Thursday April 21st) show that Trump continues to outshine all candidates.
Delegate Count 4-21 RepDelegate Count 4-21 Dem
Charts by Joe Hoft (data from RealClearPolitics)
Trump is leading both Republicans and Democrats this year.
Trump has—
** More primary wins than any candidate (18)**
More overall state wins than any candidate (21)**
The highest percentage of primary wins (82%)** 
The highest percent of overall state wins (64%)**
The highest percent of primary delegates (68%)**
The highest percent of overall delegates (60%)**
And Trump now leads all candidates in the highest percent of overall votes (58%).
And Donald Trump started out last year competing against 16 primary opponents.
(Note although not noted at RealClearPolitics.com caucus wins for Cruz in Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota, Sanders in Maine, Alaska and Washington and Hillary in Iowa and Nevada were added to these results. These states show no winners currently in the RCP data. If these caucus wins were not added to the data, Trump would be even further ahead in the areas mentioned above.)To date, the Democratic race has been tighter than the Republican race based on wins and delegates.(However, the Democrats also have super delegates which are highly in Hillary’s favor at 502 to 38 for Sanders which are not included in these totals.) It continues to be very clear that both Cruz and Sanders benefit from caucuses over primaries. As noted earlier Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he will have fallen to third place in popularity too. Cruz needs two out of every three delegates next Tuesday to stay alive but he is way behind Trump in polling and currently in 3rd place in some of these states and therefore will be done Tuesday per data from RCP. Bernie too will be mathematically eliminated from gaining enough delegates by next Tuesday. He currently needs a little less than half of the delegates next week to stay alive but is also behind in the polls to Hillary. Bernie, like Cruz, will be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright next week.


Monday, April 25, 2016

Chuck Norris Takes on Chemtrails

Martial arts legend accuses 'sky criminals' of waging secret war on public

 
Actor and activist Chuck Norris called out the “sky criminals” in his latest op-ed examining several pieces of evidence showing a global geoengineering scheme may possibly already be underway.
In a shocking World Net Daily editorial, the Walker Texas Ranger star warned governments may already be covertly subjecting populations to weather modification experiments.
Highlighting a 2003 National Center for Biotechnology Information abstract which concluded that “aerosol immunization seems a promising method of vaccination,” Norris asserted he found it doubtful the US government has not already tested the method or others on US populations.
“Over the past 13 years since the study, does anyone think it’s possible that such mass vaccinations or immunizations have occurred by air in trial locations in the U.S.?” Norris asks. “How many plane-dropping chemical cocktails have already been sprayed around the world in the name of securing public health?”“Whatever the intent or justification, and whether or not the purpose is for mass vaccinations or some other devious plot,” writes Norris, “if you don’t believe there’s some smoke-screening in the sky trails above you, I have a London Bridge to sell you in Lake Havasu City, Arizona.”The martial arts legend, who claims he and his wife have witnessed geoengineering over their Texas ranch, goes on to suggest there may be a possible cover-up afoot after the nixing of a study last year proving harmful human side-effects related to geoengineering.“Interestingly,” notes Norris, “on Sept. 2, 2015, just two weeks after it was published, Dr. [J. Marvin] Herndon’s entire 16-page scientific article was suddenly and completely retracted from the journal based upon only two chemical composition questions and an overarching explanation with no further explanation than this: “The language of the paper is often not sufficiently scientifically objective for a research article.”Norris’ search for answers follows the deaths of major celebrities who had also decried the global chemtrail phenomenon, such as country music legend Merle Haggard.Norris also referred to lyrics from the song “Dreamer” by late pop star Prince, who had also spoke out about “chemtrails” during a PBS appearance in 2009.“…Prince, who just passed away this past week, sang in his song, ‘Dreamer’: ‘While the helicopter circles us, this theory’s getting’ deep, Think they’re spraying chemicals over the city while we sleep? From now on I’m staying’ awake, you can call me a dreamer too, wake up, wake up.'”Check out Norris’ full editorial at WND.com.